Cairns Taipans vs Perth Wildcats
Friday 10 February, Cairns Convention Centre, 7:30pm (local)
Projected Starters
Taipans: Jamar Wilson; Andrew Warren; Brad Hill; Alex Loughton; Ian Crosswhite
Wildcats: Damian Martin; Kevin Lisch; Cameron Tovey; Shawn Redhage; Luke Nevill
Bench
Taipans: Dusty Rychart; Aaron Grabau; Deba George; Kerry Williams; Jeff Dowdell
Wildcats: Matthew Knight; Brad Robbins; Jesse Wagstaff; Greg Hire; Drew Williamson
Current Record
Taipans: 11-9, fifth
Wildcats: 14-6, second
Last Round
Taipans: Won 85-81 vs Crocodiles @ Cairns
Wildcats: Lost 77-83 to Breakers @ New Zealand
Streak
Taipans: Won 1
Wildcats: Lost 1
Season Series
Wildcats lead 1-0
Perth 70 Cairns 64 @ Cairns Convention Centre, Round 6
Injury Report
Taipans: None
Wildcats: None
Under the circumstances, Cairns’ victory over Townsville in last week’s brutal ‘Reptile Rumble’ may have been their biggest win of the season.
Had the Taipans lost that game, they would have found themselves with two more losses than the Crocodiles and the suddenly resurgent Gold Coast Blaze – as it is their fighting win keeps them in the hunt for one of the two remaining playoff spots.
As has become their trademark this season, they closed the show at the Snakepit thanks to a devastating 18-3 run in the fourth quarter keyed by Andrew Warren and Alex Loughton and led by point guard Jamar Wilson, who has shown time and again this season that he is at his best in a crisis.
Jamar is a big reason why opposing teams don’t want to see the Taipans in the playoffs – having someone that clutch is a heck of a luxury to have in the superheated atmosphere of postseason play.
Wilson won his individual duel with Townsville’s Eddie Gill last week and now will have to deal with another outstanding point guard in Perth’s Damian Martin, who went head to head with New Zealand’s Cedric Jackson in the Wildcats’ top of the table clash in Auckland last Thursday.
Unfortunately both Martin and his teammates fell short in a game where one of Perth’s rare weaknesses – their inability at times to hit consistently from the perimeter – wound up being a huge factor.
After a slow start the Wildcats led at halftime before the Breakers unleashed a paralysing 17-0 run in the fourth to all but seal the victory, but it was Perth’s shooting that really hurt them – 37% from the field and a miserable 4 of 20 from three point range costing them dearly.
And yet, despite that, Perth fought hard all night and only went down by six – if that doesn’t send a message, nothing will. As badly as they shot the ball they still gave the Breakers some nervous moments down the stretch, almost as if saying “we know we can beat you here, but can you beat us at our place?”
It’s that tough-minded attitude that will serve Rob Beveridge’s men well the rest of the regular season, particularly in a run home that includes three games against the Taipans.
Perth already has a win in the Snakepit this season and that must be an enormous psychological advantage heading into that building, especially given how they beat the Taipans the first time in what was a typically grinding, Cairns’ style of game. The Wildcats know they have the talent and depth to overcome what is an outstanding ballclub in their own gym, but they also have the mental toughness and intestinal fortitude to come out on top in a slugfest.
Regardless, you have to believe Perth will want to play as up-tempo as they possibly can against a team that prides itself on halfcourt execution. The Wildcats put up more shots per game than anyone else in the league – testament to their full court pressure and preference for a contest fought in transition – while the more deliberate Taipans love to bring the ball up slowly, run as much clock as they can and work through a number of options in their shuffle offence.
Individually, Perth has a talent advantage, but if Cairns can control the tempo, play at their speed and control the basketball – no other teams forces as many turnovers as the Cats – they can frustrate the Wildcats and offset their tremendous depth to a degree.
I’d also expect the Taipans to junk up their defence and play a ton of zone – Coach Fearne will be in prove it to me mode given Perth’s struggles from the outside last week – and the Wildcats have got to show they can be consistent from long distance.
There are a host of one on one duels worth watching. The point guard battle will as ever be very interesting with Martin and Wilson squaring off, albeit Perth will do a lot of switching depending on the situation and Martin may get the job on sharpshooter Drew Warren at times; Ian Crosswhite will use his mobility and face-up shooting ability to great effect against Luke Nevill – who will no doubt bank on his size advantage in the post – and Alex Loughton and Dusty Rychart will have their hands full with Perth’s frontcourt power triumvirate of Matt Knight, Shawn Redhage and Jesse Wagstaff.
This is far and away the best game of the round. Both teams have an enormous amount to play for – Cairns to remain in touch with the Top Four, Perth to maintain the pressure on New Zealand for top spot – and the Cairns Convention Centre will be at fever pitch with a sold out crowd.
Naturally it’s a toss of the coin job, but even though I rate the Taipans highly in their own arena, I think Perth’s earlier win there is huge for their psyche, and I think the Wildcats will just outlast Cairns in as hard-fought a contest as we’ll see all season.
Matt’s Prediction: Wildcats by 3
Sydney Kings vs Gold Coast Blaze
Friday 10 February, Sydney Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm (local)
TV: ONE, check local listings
Projected Starters
Kings: Luke Cooper; Ben Madgen; Anatoly Bose; Jerai Grant; Julian Khazzouh
Blaze: Adris Deleon; Adam Gibson; Mark Worthington; Stephen Hoare; Will Hudson
Bench
Kings: Luke Martin; Kevin Ratzsch; Graeme Dann; Alex Gynes; Martin Iti
Blaze: Anthony Petrie; Jason Cadee; Tom Garlepp; Zac Carter; Brendan Teys
Current Record
Kings: 8-12, seventh
Blaze: 10-8, fourth
Last Round
Kings: Bye in Round 18
Blaze: Won 91-50 vs Hawks @ Gold Coast
Streak
Kings: Lost 3
Blaze: Won 4
Season Series
Kings lead 1-0
Sydney 102 Gold Coast 96 @ Sydney Entertainment Centre, Round 14
Injury Report
Kings: Aaron Bruce (leg) – out, season
Blaze: James Harvey (calf) – out; Chris Goulding (knee) – out
The last time Gold Coast came into the Sydney Entertainment Centre, Joey Wright was not a happy man.
The Blaze head coach had just seen his team control large portions of the game against the Sydney Kings, only to see poor decision making and horrible defence let them down as they gave up 102 to the Kings in losing by six.
At that point in time, it looked as though Gold Coast were on a season-ending spiral, and when they lost James Harvey and Chris Goulding to injury shortly after, you would have gotten long odds on their chances of mounting a run to the playoffs.
But in the past few weeks, this team has been galvanised and are playing their best basketball of the season, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, where they have looked impenetrable of late.
Just ask the Wollongong Hawks about how tough the Gold Coast D has suddenly become. Riding a wave of confidence after two wins in their past three, the Hawks were expected to provide stern opposition to the Blaze, even on the road, but Coach Wright’s troops completely frustrated and befuddled Wollongong with a physical, energetic display not often seen outside the likes of Perth and New Zealand, holding the Hawks to their second lowest score in franchise history.
Whatever Joey has said to these boys has worked, because in consecutive weeks they’ve restricted Cairns to 49 points and Wollongong to 50, and if they continue in that vein, they’ll not only make the playoffs, they’ll be a team no one wants to face with everything on the line.
Revenge will be on their mind as they come into the Kingdome against a Sydney unit that was annihilated by the Breakers a fortnight ago, has lost three straight and realistically is just playing for pride the rest of the way.
Yes, it’s true that mathematically the Kings are still alive if you believe that fifteen wins will be enough to get into the Top Four this season. But that still would take seven wins in their last eight, and with road games in Perth and Cairns still on the horizon, their chances are slim at best.
Still, they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, and at the very least will want to show their loyal fans – who have again turned out to the Kingdome in large numbers this season – that there are brighter days ahead for the franchise.
If nothing else, this team should play with a nothing to lose attitude. They’ve been at their best on the road this season because they’ve bonded together, played the no one believes in us card and come out playing an enterprising, free-flowing style that has garnered them a ton of points and a few wins they maybe weren’t expected to get. That’s what they need to capture the rest of the way in 11/12.
With the playoffs an unlikely scenario for the Kings, the pressure should be off to a degree and that could work to their favour. There’s no doubting there is still a lot of talent on this team – Julian Khazzouh is still a force up front, Jerai Grant is still an athletic phenom, Anatoly Bose can fill it up with the best of them and Ben Madgen’s aggressiveness offensively is tough to counter – and they have shown at times they can be competitive with pretty much any team in the iiNet Championship.
That’s why the Blaze cannot take this team lightly – and why losing that game in Sydney a few weeks back should be to their advantage from a motivational standpoint. Expect ex-King Mark Worthington to once again be at his relentless, fiery best; Adam Gibson has been in excellent form lately and his physical defence will be key against a shooter like Madgen, Adris Deleon seems to be playing with more control of late without sacrificing those sublime one on one skills and Will Hudson, Anthony Petrie and Stephen Hoare have been doing a lot of important work around the basket that has gone unrecognised.
This is a very interesting game – the Kings will be determined to get a positive result in their home gym, Gold Coast needs to win to remain in the Top Four – and it should be a highly entertaining battle. Sydney’s transition defence – an area they’ve struggled mightily in this season – will be put under immense pressure from a Blaze unit that loves to run as much as possible, and how the Kings fare in that area will play a large role in determining the outcome.
In the end, it’s hard to go past the in-form team. Gold Coast are on a roll right now, especially at the defensive end, and I think they’ll make enough stops to escape with a win at the Kingdome.
Matt’s Prediction: Blaze by 7
Wollongong Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers
Saturday 11 February, Wollongong Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm (local)
TV: ONE, check local listings
Projected Starters
Hawks: Ayinde Ubaka; Mat Campbell; Glen Saville; Oscar Forman; Larry Davidson
Breakers: Cedric Jackson; Daryl Corletto; Thomas Abercrombie; Mika Vukona; Gary Wilkinson
Bench
Hawks: Rhys Martin; Tim Coenraad; Joevan Catron; Tyson Demos; Daniel Jackson
Breakers: CJ Bruton; Benny Anthony; Dillon Boucher; Alex Pledger; Leon Henry
Current Record
Hawks: 5-14, eighth
Breakers: 15-5, first
Last Round
Hawks: Lost 50-91 to Blaze @ Gold Coast
Breakers: Won 83-77 vs Wildcats @ New Zealand
Streak
Hawks: Lost 1
Breakers: Won 5
Season Series
Tied 1-1
New Zealand 98 Wollongong 82 @ Wollongong Entertainment Centre, Round 1
Wollongong 81 New Zealand 63 @ North Shore Events Centre, Auckland, Round 6
Injury Report
Hawks: David Gruber (hand) – out
Breakers: None
I was remiss in my column last week in not recognising Glen Saville’s achievement in racking up 500 games for Wollongong in the National Basketball League.
‘Sav’ is one of the all-time greats of this competition, a guy whose work sometimes goes a little unappreciated given the team he plays for in a regional centre doesn’t get the ink some of the bigger clubs receive.
And really, that’s a crime, because outside Sam Mackinnon and Robert Rose there hasn’t been a better all-around player to grace our courts in the 33 year history of the NBL. This guy is your classic do-everything baller, a great athlete who can score, rebound at both ends, find the open man and defend anywhere from one to four. Many times he’s been the quintessential point forward, someone who basically controls everything from the wing, which is hard to do.
So I tip my hat to the great ‘Sav’ – one of the all-time nice guys off the floor and an ornament to the sport of basketball.
Unfortunately, his milestone game was one he’d rather forget as his Hawks were obliterated on the road by the Gold Coast in a battle where they were scarcely competitive.
It was a shame to see Wollongong blown out like that considering they had gained some confidence with wins in two of their past three games and came into the Gold Coast Convention Centre on a high. But the same old problems that have dogged them all year resurfaced – the stagnant offence, the lack of team speed and their weaknesses in defensive transition – plus the lack of effort from certain players whose careers should be on the line.
You normally hate to single anyone out, but Larry Davidson is at a crossroads right now. In the game against the Blaze he looked more interested in trying to fight someone rather than play basketball, and that’s a major issue considering how good he has been for this ballclub since Gordie McLeod came on board.
Larry is as talented a big man as there is in this competition, but he is having a dreadful season, seemingly doesn’t want to be on the floor, and his regression has hurt the Hawks throughout their campaign.
Of course, he isn’t alone in having a down season – a number of players on this team haven’t been getting it done all year. But he has been a fulcrum of this unit when they are playing well, and it’s no coincidence Wollongong have struggled in 11/12 as Davidson has gone off the reservation.
The New Zealand Breakers have no such problems.
Despite not playing a complete 40 minute game, the defending champs were brilliant at times in overcoming Perth in their top of the table clash last Thursday night, a win set up by a run of 17 straight points in the third quarter that had the North Shore Events Centre crowd in a frenzy.
The scary thing about this Breaker squad is that they are still yet to show everyone what they are truly capable of. They haven’t put together one of those devastating games where they are completely dominant at both ends, which may be a good thing given no one wants to be peaking at this time of the year. However, Coach Andrej Lemanis will no doubt want to see a continual level of improvement from his troops and a solid build-up to their playoffs where they will once again be hard to beat.
Interestingly, Wollongong gave them their heaviest defeat at home this season so they can’t afford to overlook the Hawks. They need to be aggressive defensively, look to get the ball out of the hands of Ayinde Ubaka and ensure they rotate quickly in the halfcourt to counter Wollongong’s ball reversal to the weakside.
Offensively, it’s all about speed. New Zealand has it in spades over the Hawks, with Thomas Abercrombie essentially a younger, quicker version of Saville and the rest of the Breaker frontline is much better in transition than their Wollongong counterparts.
Ubaka will have his hands full with superstar New Zealand floor leader Cedric Jackson, who was the Round 18 NBL Player of the Week and has established himself as the number one point guard in the league, while Daryl Corletto’s movement without the ball will test Mat Campbell’s aging legs and Alex Pledger provides big man depth the Hawks just don’t have.
The intrigue in this one is how Wollongong responds from the shellacking they copped last week. There’s no middle ground – they’ll either stand up and smack the Breakers in the mouth, or they’ll succumb as meekly as they did against the Blaze.
Either way, I don’t see the Hawks being especially competitive. All they have left to play for is the avoidance of the wooden spoon, and against one of the power teams in the NBL, that just isn’t enough motivation.
New Zealand is locked in a fierce race with Perth for the all-important Minor Premiership and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, and they’ll come in with the proper mindset. I think the Hawks might put up an early fight, but it will fizzle out in the second half as the Breakers cruise to an easy victory.
Matt’s Prediction: Breakers by 18
Adelaide 36ers vs Townsville Crocodiles
Sunday 12 February, Adelaide Arena, 4:00pm (local)
TV: ONE, check local listings
Projected Starters
36ers: Chris Warren; Stephen Weigh; Mitchell Creek; Diamon Simpson; Daniel Johnson
Crocodiles: Eddie Gill; Peter Crawford; Elvin Mims; Jacob Holmes; Luke Schenscher
Bench
36ers: Nathan Herbert; Wade Helliwell; Everard Bartlett; Darren Ng; Tom Daly
Crocodiles: Michael Cedar; Todd Blanchfield; Ben Allen; Chris Cedar; Keegan Tudehope
Current Record
36ers: 5-15, ninth
Crocodiles: 11-8, third
Last Round
36ers: Lost 81-87 to Tigers @ Melbourne; Lost 71-89 to Crocodiles @ Townsville
Crocodiles: Lost 81-85 to Taipans @ Cairns; Won 89-71 vs 36ers @ Townsville
Streak
36ers: Lost 6
Crocodiles: Won 1
Season Series
Crocodiles lead 2-0
Townsville 79 Adelaide 69 @ Townsville Entertainment Centre, Round 17
Townsville 89 Adelaide 71 @ Townsville Entertainment Centre, Round 18
Injury Report
36ers: Adam Ballinger (foot) – out, season; Nathan Crosswell (Achilles tendon) – out, season
Crocodiles: Russell Hinder (leg) – out, season; Mitch Norton (foot) – out, season
It’s been time for Adelaide to start looking toward next season for a while now, but it became official this week when their two losses saw them hit the bomb shelter and within sight of the club’s second wooden spoon in as many years.
It started with a tough loss to the Tigers in Melbourne where they showed glimpses of the quality team they could have been this season yet suffered too many breakdowns in the second half to go down by six.
Then in the Swamp they played very well for a half against the Crocodiles but once again fell apart in the second half to lose convincingly.
It’s been a sad story for 36er fans – most of whom have lost all patience with the current regime. They have been teased by this team right from preseason only to be let down time and again.
Inconsistency has been a recurring theme. Chris Warren was brilliant against the Tigers but disappeared against the Crocs; Mitch Creek had his best game of the season against Townsville but was nowhere to be found in Melbourne; the team played hard for four quarters against Melbourne but seemed to drop their bundle once the Crocs upped the intensity in the second half.
Actually if there is one other thing you could point to Adelaide’s problems this season it’s that they appear to have a soft underbelly. There is talent in this unit, but they lack a hard edge, maybe an enforcer type to set a physical tone. Historically, as up-tempo and as high-powered as they have been over the years, the Sixers have generally had that one tough guy who does the dirty work and gives the club some steel, whether it be a Mark Davis, a Peter Ali, a Mark Bradtke or a Rupert Sapwell.
That might be a focus in the offseason – building some toughness in the roster. But for right now, they’ve still got a season to play out and individuals playing for contracts in 12/13.
Their first test of their remaining schedule is against a Townsville unit they stuck with for twenty minutes last Sunday but were uncompetitive the rest of the way. The Sixers had no answers to Luke Schenscher in the middle, who went for 22 points and seven boards and probably should have gotten the ball more, such was his dominance, while Eddie Gill schooled Chris Warren and the Cedar boys played quality minutes for Coach Paul Woolpert.
Townsville normally haven’t closed games well but that wasn’t the case last week as they held the 36ers to just 23 points after intermission and were never threatened in the fourth quarter, but there’s no doubt they’ll want to get off to a better start this time to completely bury any hopes Adelaide may have of stealing a win, even at home, where the Sixers are an unsightly 2-7 this season.
There’s very little to recommend Adelaide in this game, other than the possibility they get hot from the perimeter in their great shooting gym. They’ve lost six in a row, the Adelaide hierarchy is calling for support from a 36er fan base not used to mediocrity, and it doesn’t look like the coaching staff has much of an idea as to how they can arrest this slide.
The Crocs have the motivation of a playoff race to draw from; the 36ers are simply playing to avoid back to back wooden spoons. There should be pride involved given the Sixers are at home, but unless Townsville suffers a complete meltdown, I just don’t see how Adelaide stays with them over the 40 minute journey.
This will likely follow last week’s script – one Townsville surge at any time, and that will be it. Give this one to the Crocs – and again it won’t be close.
Matt’s Prediction: Crocodiles by 14
*The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect those of the National Basketball League.
