Wollongong Hawks vs Adelaide 36ers
Wednesday 25 November, WIN Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm (local)
TV: Fox Sports One, coverage begins 7:30pm AEDT
Projected Starters
Hawks: Tywain McKee, Mathew Campbell, Glen Saville, Larry Davidson, Cameron Tragardh
36ers: John Gilchrist, Cortez Groves, Brad Hill, Jacob Holmes, Adam Ballinger
Bench
Hawks: David Gruber, Tim Coenraad, Tim Behrendorff, Rhys Martin, Daniel Jackson
36ers: Nathan Herbert, Darren Ng, Matthew Burston, David Cooper, Chris Molitor
Current Record
Hawks 7-4, 1st; 36ers 6-4, 3rd
Recent Form
Hawks: Bye in Round Nine
36ers: Bye in Round Nine
Season Series
36ers lead 1-0
This Big Wednesday matchup gets Game of the Week status, given it is between first and third on the ladder and features two of the three teams in the league with a better than .500 record in the 09/10 campaign.
Both clubs have had a fortnight to rest up and prepare for what should be an outstanding battle between two organisations making significant claims on a Final Four berth at the end of the regular season.
Wollongong has been brilliant at home to date. They are one of only two clubs to boast a perfect record on their own floor – the other one, predictably, is the Perth Wildcats – and they’ve only been seriously challenged once.
That was in their season opener to those same Wildcats, a game they were dominating but wound up having to survive a rimmed out go-ahead triple with two seconds left on the clock – it’s interesting to consider the implications had that Stephen Weigh desperation three fallen. Would the Hawks’ confidence have been crushed if that shot went down? Would they have been as dominant at the Sandpit this season?
As it was, that game sent the Hawks on their way, and there’s no doubt they have been the league’s genuine surprise packet, given how many judges had tipped them to finish in the bottom two of the competition.
But those prognosticators had no idea how much of an impact young import Tywain McKee would make in his first season in the league. They didn’t know that Matty Campbell would belie his age, that Tim Coenraad would be a Rookie of the Year candidate, or that Larry Davidson would finally start to realise some of his enormous potential.
The Hawks have lost three of their past five however, albeit all three losses were on the road, and they are coming off an exceptional win against the Crocodiles in Townsville, so they should come into this one with a ton of confidence.
Very quietly, their opponents in this game, the Adelaide 36ers, are right now the hottest team in the league.
Without anyone really noticing, the Sixers have won four of their last five and three straight to vault into third place, and this run ironically started with a loss at home to the Melbourne Tigers.
In that game, played at a gym which has seen its fair share of brilliant performances by the 36ers, Adelaide disgraced themselves with one of the poorest efforts in the history of their proud franchise.
But that game has also served as a wakeup call to this unit – since then they’ve gone up to Cairns and decimated the Taipans, lost a close one in New Zealand and then beaten Cairns and two quality teams in the Gold Coast and the Hawks, who they overcame in a highly entertaining game two weeks ago in the City of Churches.
They had to fight all the way against a Wollongong club that gave them all they could handle, but in the end it was a balanced scoring attack and some clutch plays down the stretch that enabled Adelaide to keep the Hawks at bay.
Tywain McKee was a complete non-factor, losing his individual duel with Adelaide’s excellent import point guard John Gilchrist. The MVP candidate had one of his worst games of the season, scoring just six points on 3 of 14 shooting from the field.
That was one of the rare occasions this season that the Coppin State product has been overshadowed by his direct opponent, and you better believe he’ll be fired up to settle the score and lead his team to the W in a gym where he’s quickly become a hero to the Hawk fans.
Cam Tragardh is having a solid season and was awesome in his last game against Townsville but he’ll have his hands full trying to contain Adam Ballinger, while Glen Saville will have a size and experience advantage over Brad Hill at the three spot and Cortez Groves needs to do a better job against Mat Campbell, who went 9 of 12 for 22 points in their first meeting.
The glaring thing that stands out in this matchup is Adelaide’s record on the road versus the Hawks’ current perfection at home. Gordie McLeod has stressed the importance of protecting homecourt to his players and they have responded extremely well; on the flipside the 36ers have had one brilliant display on the road and some mediocre performances otherwise, and eventually they are going to have to knock off a quality ballclub away from home if they are to be taken seriously as a legit championship contender.
The Hawks’ D has been in lockdown mode for much of the season, especially at the Sandpit, and the Sixers must do a solid job on the glass and run wherever possible to put as much scoreboard pressure on as they can.
I think this one will be close. I like Ballinger to get some numbers and I think the Sixers’ perimeter shooting will cause some problems, but I look for McKee to put on a show and the unheralded Wollongong bench to get the job done at home.
The Hawks will get this one in a thriller.
Matt’s Prediction: Hawks by 3
New Zealand Breakers vs Cairns Taipans
Thursday 26 November, North Shore Events Centre, Auckland, 7:00pm (local)
TV: Fox Sports One, coverage begins 5:00pm AEDT
Projected Starters
Breakers: CJ Bruton, Dillon Boucher, Thomas Abercrombie, Oscar Forman, Rick Rickert
Taipans: Julien Mills, Phill Jones, Gary Boodnikoff, Dusty Rychart, Rich Melzer
Bench
Breakers: Kirk Penney, Tony Ronaldson, Paul Henare, John Rillie, Corey Webster
Taipans: Ian Crosswhite, Aaron Grabau, Kerry Williams, Dwayne Vale, Tony Rampton
Current Record
Breakers 6-6, 5th; Taipans 6-8, 7th
Recent Form
Breakers: Lost 64-77 to Taipans @ Cairns; Won 85-73 vs Crocodiles @ Townsville
Taipans: Won 77-64 vs Breakers @ Cairns; Won 86-83 vs Tigers @ Melbourne
Season Series
Tied 1-1
After going down – rather meekly it must be said – to the Taipans in Cairns last Wednesday night in the opening game of the Sunshine Swing, it’s fair to say New Zealand’s game with Townsville at the Swamp the following Friday was going to be a statement game for this team, one way or another.
They could either lay down and die, and put their title aspirations in extreme jeopardy, or they could step up to the mark and show their championship hopes are far from a pipe dream.
Fortunately for their supporters, the Breakers decided on the second option, and got a win they just had to have. Even though we are just nearing the halfway point of this competition, there are always those moments that can define a season – last Friday night may have been one of those times for New Zealand.
It needed to be, considering their poor showing in Cairns. Against a team they should have had no problems putting away the Breakers shot the ball horrendously, allowed the Taipans to control the tempo and were never really in the contest after halftime.
But it all turned around in Townsville. It’s not a stretch to say their backs were against the wall coming into Friday night’s must-win, and the manner in which they responded must have been both very pleasing and an extreme relief to Coach Andrej Lemanis.
It took a huge fightback and a ton of character for the Breakers to get a win. They overcame a rare Townsville fast start as the Crocs roared to a 23-7 lead in the first eight minutes and a 25-14 first quarter advantage, outscoring the home team 23-12 in the second quarter to tie it up at the half.
They went on with the job in the second 20 minutes, winning both periods comfortably behind a brilliant exhibition from CJ Bruton, who tortured the Croc defence to finish with a game-high 24 points.
He got great support from Oscar Forman, who had 18 points and five boards and has been on a bit of a tear recently, while Rick Rickert was a solid contributor with 12 points and seven rebounds and John Rillie celebrated his return to his old stomping ground with eight points including a pair of long range bombs.
Then there were the Taipans, whose performance on the weekend underlined one thing about the NBL you can count on this season – its extreme unpredictably.
See Exhibit A - who would have been brave enough to predict that Cairns would have swept their home-away double last weekend?
Yes, they may have been at home Wednesday night to the Breakers, a team who at that stage hadn’t won a road game, but their previous form did nothing to suggest they’d be able to compete, let alone beat New Zealand, even in the Snakepit.
However, after a slow start which had the alarm bells ringing, they suffocated New Zealand defensively and finally got some consistent offence out of import Rich Melzer, who finished with 17 points and admitted he needed to get a little more ‘selfish’ for a unit that had been struggling to put the ball in the basket.
It also helped that Dusty Rychart had one of his ultra-productive games, as he came up with an impressive 19 point, 11 rebound effort and showed that he is far from finished as a quality forward at this level.
So an impressive win no doubt, but they surely topped it Saturday night, going into the Cage and stunning the Melbourne Tigers with a hard-fought three point victory, their first on the road this season.
It was their first win against Melbourne in 12 tries dating all the way back to January 2006, and they showed tremendous grit and determination to withstand several Tiger surges in the second half to record a W that should give them a jolt of confidence heading into the second half of the season.
Every Taipan contributed in the victory, but none more so than shooting guard Phill Jones, who nailed one big shot after the other in the second stanza to finish with a game-high 21 points. That type of performance will hold Cairns in very good stead moving forward.
The first game these two played this season saw a blowout victory to the Breakers at home, but things have changed dramatically since then.
For one thing, Kirk Penney ripped the Snakes apart with 32 points including 8 triples, and although he makes his long-awaited return from injury this Thursday, you wouldn’t expect that kind of production in his first game back after a long absence.
For another, the Breakers nailed 18 treys in that game and it’s highly unlikely they’ll approach that in this one given the Taipans’ intense defence – New Zealand got a taste of that last Wednesday and never looked settled against the pressure.
That said, it’s still difficult to tip against the Breakers. They should be able to make the proper adjustments to Cairns’ pressure D, they are incredibly tough at home, Penney’s return will give them a huge boost and the team understands protecting homecourt is vital now if they want to finish in the top four at the end of the regular season.
However, I’m expecting a much closer game this time than the previous two, especially if the Taipans can withstand an early New Zealand onslaught. I think they’ll do a good job limiting CJ Bruton’s effectiveness, they should be able to break even on the glass, and if they gain control of the tempo and turn it into a grind it out ballgame they have a chance to steal another one on the road.
Ultimately, I don’t see that happening. Cairns are still long shots to make the playoffs and the Breakers are right in the thick of the race, and with slightly more to play for I see New Zealand outlasting the Taipans after a heck of a struggle.
Matt’s Prediction: Breakers by 5
Townsville Crocodiles vs Adelaide 36ers
Friday 27 November, Townsville Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm (local)
Projected Starters
Crocodiles: Corey Williams, Michael Cedar, Cameron Tovey, Russell Hinder, Rolan Roberts
36ers: John Gilchrist, Cortez Groves, Brad Hill, Jacob Holmes, Adam Ballinger
Bench
Crocodiles: Peter Crawford, Stephen Hoare, Kelvin Robertson, Brad Williamson, Jeff Dowdell
36ers: Nathan Herbert, Darren Ng, Matthew Burston, David Cooper, Chris Molitor
Current Record
Crocodiles 6-7, 6th; 36ers 6-4, 3rd
Recent Form
Crocodiles: Lost 73-85 to Breakers @ Townsville
36ers: Bye in Round Nine
Season Series
36ers lead 1-0
Has the Swamp lost its mystique?
It’s a venue that over the years has been a veritable graveyard for visiting teams, but lately that old intimidation factor seems to have dissipated.
Townsville has lost two straight on their own floor – and on both occasions the result wasn’t even that close. They were obliterated by Wollongong two weeks ago, and last week fell to the New Zealand Breakers – a team that, by the way, was winless on the road coming in.
Incredibly, the Crocs now have a better road record on the road (4-4) than they do at home (2-3). They are one of only two teams – Melbourne is the other – to have a less than .500 mark at home on the season. That’s an amazing stat considering how devastating they have traditionally been in that gym over the years.
It wasn’t pretty last Friday night. The Crocs started brilliantly, jumping out to a 23-7 lead after eight minutes of the first quarter, and you figured that had to be curtains for the visitors since they had been blown away on Wednesday and still hadn’t won a road game, right?
Wrong. Townsville fell apart in the second quarter, a period which saw several of their key players in early foul trouble, particularly Corey Williams and Rolan Roberts, and the points dried up after halftime, with only Peter Crawford providing any inspiration.
He continued his recent offensive hot streak with 17 on 6 of 8 shooting from the field, but had little support as the Breakers turned the screws defensively and the Crocs lost all rhythm.
To their credit, they mounted a late charge, but the damage had been done and they could never reel in the Breakers, falling for the second straight game at home in dispiriting fashion.
After at one stage looking like a legit title contender, Townsville have now lost three of their last five to fall out of the top four, although given the parity of this league the fact remains they only have one less win than the two teams heading the ladder. As poorly as they have played at times over the past month, it’s still far from panic stations, although a loss to an Adelaide team on the backend of a tough road double would clearly be cause for concern.
It took a clutch John Gilchrist jumper to beat the Crocs in Adelaide in their first meeting this season, as the 36ers survived a magnificent performance from Corey Williams, who tallied a near triple double with 32 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in what was a heartbreaking loss.
Williams hasn’t come near those spectacular numbers recently, but if ever Townsville needed him to step up the time is right now. His battle with Gilchrist will again be a highlight, and as ‘Homicide’ goes, so go the Crocs.
Rolan Roberts also will be a huge key in his matchup with Adam Ballinger, a guy who he has had a lot of success against in the past. Townsville need to ensure they make Roberts a significant target in the low block and get him the ball early and often in the half court offence, because his quickness and strength have historically caused the Sixer captain more than a few problems.
For their part, Adelaide needs to get off to a fast start. The Crocs’ last game notwithstanding, one of their admitted weaknesses has been falling behind opposing teams early and spending too much energy fighting back. The script was turned on its head last week against the Breakers where they started brightly and faded later, but if they revert to type, Townsville could be in trouble against a club that is typically a good front-runner.
In the best shooting gym in the country, Adelaide also presents a serious threat given their ability to shoot the three ball. At any one time they can put at least four guys on the floor that can knock it down from long distance, and if Ballinger starts hitting them, look out.
So what to make of the Crocs? It’s certainly not panic stations yet, and there’s a long way to go, but the losing at home has got to stop now if they want to make a playoff run. Their road record is commendable, but it will ultimately be worth nothing if they can’t protect their own floor.
If they were to lose to the Sixers, it would mark a third consecutive defeat at the Swamp and would raise some serious questions over their ability to mount a challenge for the NBL title.
Adelaide has still got to prove they can get the job done on the road, and a win here would put some space between them and the bottom four clubs, but I still don’t quite trust them enough, despite their good recent form, to think they’ll be able to overcome what should be a desperate and highly motivated Crocodile ballclub.
I’m giving Townsville one more chance to get it together at the Swamp – I like the Crocs to win this one in another close battle between these two teams.
Matt’s Prediction: Crocodiles by 3
Perth Wildcats vs Gold Coast Blaze
Saturday 28 November, Challenge Stadium, 7:00pm (local)
Projected Starters
Wildcats: Damian Martin, Kevin Lisch, Stephen Weigh, Shawn Redhage, Luke Schenscher
Blaze: Adam Gibson, James Harvey, Erron Maxey, Mika Vukona, Pero Cameron
Bench
Wildcats: Martin Cattalini, Jesse Wagstaff, Brad Robbins, Drew Williamson, Sam Harris
Blaze: Ayinde Ubaka, Anthony Petrie, Chris Goulding, Tyson Demos
Current Record
Wildcats 7-4, 2nd; Blaze 6-6, 4th
Recent Form
Wildcats: Lost 79-84 to Blaze @ Gold Coast
Blaze: Won 84-79 vs Wildcats @ Gold Coast
Season Series
Tied 1-1
What in the world happened at halftime to turn last Saturday’s Blaze-Wildcats game on the Gold Coast completely on its head?
In the first 20 minutes, Perth gave as clinical and professional a performance as you’d expect to see from the league’s best team. They were composed, they played tough D, their ball movement was excellent and they knocked down their open shots.
They were so dominant, it seemed a mere formality that they’d close out the game in the second half and push their record to 8-3 on the season.
But in an amazing turn of events, the Cats just flat stopped playing, and a newly energised Blaze, fuelled by a small but very vocal crowd, started to work their way back in the game.
Where the Cats were finding open avenues to the basket in the first half, Gold Coast were closing down in the second. Where Perth were getting open look after open look in the opening 20 minutes, the Blaze were suddenly closing out hard to the perimeter shooters and getting a hand up to contest the shot.
The Wildcats’ offence sputtered to a near halt in the third quarter as the Blaze restricted them to an incredible five points in 10 minutes while scoring 23 of their own to tie the score at the end of the third.
Perth got it together enough to stay close in the fourth, but the momentum was all with the home team, and you could almost sense that Gold Coast were not going to let this one go, even before import Erron Maxey hit the go-ahead triple with 40 seconds left.
It was truly a game that had you scratching your head, such was the improbable turnaround, but there’s no doubt the result gave the Cats extra ammunition for this return engagement at the fearsome Jungle on Saturday night.
Perth coach Rob Beveridge won’t have to work too hard to get his players fired up for this. The Blaze celebrated after their win like it was one of the biggest victories in franchise history – which it was – and over the years the Wildcats have been a team that has always kept those types of losses front and centre in the memory banks and determined to return the favour.
They’ll have a sold out, maniacal crowd spurring them on in Perth and the knowledge that against a team that shoots the ball so well they cannot afford to let down their guard again.
From a strategy viewpoint, it’s easy for Coach Beveridge. Play like you did for the opening 20 minutes in the Gold Coast, and maintain that level for 40. No great secret there. For the Blaze, it’s not allowing Perth to jump them quickly – because on that floor, if they get down 15 or so, the crowd really gets into it and the Cats are impossible to chase down.
Perth also must do a better job making Luke Schenscher a target in the middle and make the Blaze put him on the line; they have to get out to the shooters and collapse the middle when the likes of Anthony Petrie and Mika Vukona put the ball on the floor – the no layup rule should be in effect.
Stephen Weigh and Shawn Redhage figure to do a ton of damage offensively, and I’d expect Kevin Lisch to be a real impact player – Adam Gibson did a terrific job to limit his effectiveness last Saturday but I think ‘D-Lisch’ bounces back here.
There’s no question the Blaze are for real this season. That was as stirring a comeback win as you are ever likely to see, and for maybe the first time this season they showed the potential to be a real lockdown defensive unit – something that had been missing consistently until the second half of last week’s game.
However, they are coming up against a team that has a point to prove and has been simply awesome at home. Perth will come out angry, they will come out with desperation, and if the Blaze can’t deal with their energy they’ll get blown right out of Challenge Stadium.
It says here a wounded Wildcat outfit – at least emotionally – is a dangerous animal. Perth bounces back with a big win in this one.
Matt’s Prediction: Wildcats by 8
