Tip-off: Monday, December 31, 6.30pm (local), Cairns Convention Centre

Broadcast: NBL.TV (live)

Last time they met: New Zealand 97 (Jackson 32, Pledger 13, Boucher 10) d Cairns 76 (Wilson 18, Edwards 15, Rychart 15), Round 11, 2012/13, Vector Arena, Auckland

The story
The Cairns Taipans achieved a 34-28 win-loss record the past two seasons and impressively did so without being one of the league’s better offensive rebounding teams.

But this season things have changed, with the Taipans ranking up with powerhouses New Zealand and Perth on the O-boards.

“We try to attack the offensive glass hard,” coach Aaron Fearne said, revealing it begins with a battle royale on the practice court.

“From a training perspective you’ve got to make some really solid hits on box-outs or you'll be giving up offensive glass all the time.”

While this has added a new facet to the Taipans’ game, it has potentially turned a former strength into a weakness.

“Our biggest hole defensively has definitely been letting teams get out in transition on us,” Fearne said.

Where the Taipans were the masters of the tempo, this season opposition teams have been able to compile some staggering runs.

In Round 11, three nights apart, Cairns conceded a combined 63 points in their second quarters against New Zealand and Melbourne.

With a more talented offensive line-up, Fearne has encouraged his players to push the ball more often, but has watched repeatedly as poorly-chosen quick shots, combined with his team’s penchant for offensive rebounding, have left the back door open.

For his part Fearne doesn’t believe it is a rebounding issue, instead pointing to ill-discipline and failure to stick to the defensive structures.

“It’s really our inability to communicate and pick the ball up and get to our spots defensive transition-wise.”

That problem has been exaggerated by the partnership of "tweeners" Alex Loughton and Cam Tragardh in the frontcourt, who both struggle to contain guards coming off ball-screens and then compete inside with bigger opponents once forced out of position.

Fearne said he is encouraged by the patches of good form, frustrated by the inconsistency, and not closed to the idea of mixing up his frontcourt partnerships if that means getting results.

“You're always looking. Ultimately, I'm just trying to find the best group.”

The stats
So far this season the Taipans have pulled in 39 more offensive rebounds than their opponents, ranking second in the league. Last season they had a deficit of 54, placing them seventh.

In two games in Round 11 the Taipans were out-scored by 20 points in 33 minutes with Tragardh and Loughton on the court together.

Cairns are allowing opponents to shoot an equal league-high 45 per cent from the field.

In New Zealand’s three losses they have averaged only 12 free-throw attempts. In their nine victories they have gotten to the stripe 22.4 times a night.  

The wrap
The Taipans can ill-afford to let Cedric Jackson loose in transition, meaning they might need to choose between crashing the offensive boards or loading up their transition defence.

While much is required of point guard Jamar Wilson, he must lift his decision-making in offensive transition to ensure this game is played on the Taipans’ terms.

The Breakers have been inconsistent on the road this season and were well down in the effort areas in losses to Perth and Sydney.

After what should be a physical test on Friday night in Adelaide, the Breakers’ mettle could be tested if Cairns make a quick start and get their huge New Year’s Eve crowd involved.

Ultimately though, Wilson and the Taipans’ bigs have not shown they can consistently guard the on-ball screen, particularly in transition, and if Jackson again gets too much leeway the game could quickly slip through the home team’s fingers.

Prediction: Breakers by 8

The New Zealand Breakers did the business again on New Year’s Eve, edging past the Cairns Taipans 66-61 in a hard-fought contest in Cairns.

Cedric Jackson was the mastermind with 17 points and six assists, but it was far less pretty than on previous occasions.

Jamar Wilson had a game-high 23 points for Cairns, but the next best was Dusty Rychart with eight points.

The Taipans were never out of the contest despite not clicking in offence, and ultimately had themselves to blame for the result.

They shot a woeful 15-36 from the free-throw line at one stage missing six in a row to finish the first quarter, and their 23 turnovers did not help either.

“It’s pretty obvious; way too many stupid turnovers, gave up 16 offensive rebounds and shot 15-of-36 from the free throw line. Ball game,” Taipans coach Aaron Fearne said.

“We did enough to win the game, we make free throws, we are a chance. But 15-of-36, are you serious? Far out, I’ve never seen that in my life.”

Veteran Dusty Rychart hinted that their mental demons were starting to get the better of them.

“It doesn’t help when you are four (wins) and nine (losses). A lot of guys are rushed and that shows; we aren't poised, we were shooting tight from the line. I don’t know whether we need  a psychologist or what,” he said.

Cairns import Shane Edwards had a game to forget, coughing it up softly twice in the final stanza before being subbed, while Cam Gliddon and Jamar Wilson had a costly nine turnovers between them.

The arm-wrestle turned into a wrestle when Dillon Boucher and Alex Loughton finished in a tangle on the ground, a scuffle that saw the Breaker fouled out of the game with five to play.

The near-capacity New Year’s Eve crowd of 5217 was denied a free-flowing game as both teams struggle to get any momentum in offence.

The Taipans started promisingly with some quick passes inside giving them an early 8-7 lead.

But they didn’t score a point in the final five minutes of the quarter, missing six consecutive free throws as the Kiwis took a 16-8 buffer to the first break.

The hosts had every right to be out of the contest, with the consistent hand of Jackson constantly piloting the Breakers to points while Will Hudson (12 points, seven rebounds) chipped in with buckets of his own and Mika Vukona (eight rebounds) was his usual strong self off the boards.

But a 10-point run in the second quarter and another mini-surge in the third meant the Snakes never went away.

Their inability at the charity stripe, combined with continuously costly turnovers would cost them though.

“We are at exactly the half way point and to be where we are is a good place,” a content Breakers coach Andrej Lemanis said.

“We disrupted well, we limited their transition and we out-rebounded them. We won the effort categories and that is very pleasing,”

He said their versatility was becoming a major strength.

“We are finding ways to win games and the whole league is evolving and sometime you don’t get to play the way you want, but we are still finding ways to win.”

New Zealand Breakers 66 (Jackson 17, Hudson 12, Bruton 10)
Cairns Taipans 61 (Wilson 23)

Crowd: 5217 at the Cairns Convention Centre