So often in sports, fans enjoy analysing team schedules in a bid to explain and predict performance.
Does a compressed schedule lead to mental and physical fatigue, reducing performance? Do long breaks from competition and byes result in rested players, or instead do they induce poor performance through lack of sharpness?
The National Basketball League, whilst sending players across the Australian continent and as far as New Zealand, does not enforce the most rigorous of schedules in professional sports. Teams on average play approximately one game per week, allowing for significant rest and training time between games, particularly when compared to the NBA and its currently condensed, lockout-shortened schedule which is playing havoc with players' bodies.
With this in mind, I thought it was worthwhile having a look at how NBL teams have fared during the iiNet Championship so far this season with regard to doubles (playing two games in a single weekend) and byes. Conventional wisdom infers that the second game of a double would be an arduous task for a team -- particularly when travelling -- and that even the first game of a double may involve a lack of concentration, reducing success. The Doomsday Double (Perth and Adelaide) and the Sunshine Swing (Townsville and Cairns) are famous doubles of years gone by, both of which were said to be hard to come out of with two wins.
Interestingly, in the 18 rounds of the season to date, the double has not proven as much of a factor as many may expect. Teams have played 24 doubles in total so far, meaning that they have played 48 games on double-rounds. The record for teams in those games is a very even 24 wins and 24 losses. Even more surprisingly, that trend remains when it comes to whether it is the first or second game of the double, with both indicating a 12-12 record.
The league-leading New Zealand Breakers have been the best at handling the double, with a 4-0 record, which will surprise few. Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, the Adelaide 36ers have a 0-4 record on double rounds.
The Cairns Taipans (5-3), Melbourne Tigers (3-5) and Sydney Kings (5-3) have had the most double-heavy schedule to date, with eight games each on those rounds. Meanwhile, as NBL Dream Team participants will be well aware, the Gold Coast Blaze have three doubles coming up in Rounds 21, 22 and 24.
Does home court advantage have any impact on success during the double? As you may expect, there is some advantage to playing at home during a double, but no more than usual. Home teams win 60% of the time on doubles, just as they do in general. Away teams win 45% of their double games, which is in fact better than the 40% that away teams normally record.
This leads us to the other peculiarity of scheduling: the bye round. Byes have not been extremely common this season, with them occurring on seven occasions to date. The Hawks have had two, whilst the Taipans, Blaze, Kings and Crocs have had one each. As such, there isn't a great deal of data to analyse here, but let's have a try nonetheless.
Teams coming off bye rounds have gone on to record a 3-4 record on their return game the following week (2-3 at home and 1-1 on the road). Given that neither the Wildcats or Breakers have had a bye this season (and neither will at any point), the less than 50% record is not surprising. Given the data from this season alone, the jury is out as to whether a week of rest does anything to impact the fortunes of NBL teams.
Overall though, the results to date show little impact of scheduling on NBL team performance during season 2011/12, so next time you hear grumblings on that front, feel free to point them toward this article.
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*The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect those of the National Basketball League.
