Tip-off: Thursday, February 16, 7.30pm (local), North Shore Events Centre, Auckland

TV/Radio: SKY Sports, 7.30pm (New Zealand)/Radio Sport

Last time they met: Wollongong 80 (Forman 29, Catron 15, Demos 10, Ubaka 10) d New Zealand 64 (Wilkinson 16, Abercrombie 12, Corletto 12, Jackson 12), Round 19, 2011/12, WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Beware the bogey men
Seven games remain for New Zealand, but with five against playoff contenders and four on the road, they face a tough challenge to hold top spot.

If they do miss the minor premiership, the Breakers will have their performances against Wollongong to blame.

The Hawks have now defeated the Breakers on consecutive occasions and look set to claim this season series for the third straight year.

There are a number of key areas the Hawks have exploited which the Breakers must overcome to re-ignite their playoff drive.

The Forman grill
Breakers coach Andrej Lemanis has persisted with the Mika Vukona-Oscar Forman match-up at the power forward position, but it hasn’t worked well for his team.

Vukona’s natural game is to help defensively and creep towards the glass ready to rebound. This tendency allows Forman, the iiNet NBL’s leading three-point shooter, the space he needs to get his shot off.

In his past four games against his old club, Forman has averaged 16.8 points and shot 72 per cent from three-point range, while Vukona has produced 17 fouls and 16 defensive rebounds, just one more than Forman.

Leave Larry
With Hawks centre Larry Davidson a measly 2-of-21 from long range this season, he presents a far better assignment for Vukona.

The extra length of Gary Wilkinson can force Forman to create two-point shots, where he is connecting at a low 39 per cent this season.

Vukona has made just 2-of-13 field goals in the past two games against Wollongong, his driving lanes swallowed up by the Hawks’ collapsing defence.

When playing for the Tall Blacks the Fijian-born hard man is an excellent mid-range shooter; the Breakers need to get him more rhythm jumpers to force defenders out of the key.

I’ll go myself
New Zealand drew only 11 fouls last Saturday – four of those by Tom Abercrombie – doing themselves no favours by straying from their trademark offence.

The Breakers fed the post just eight times after half-time and had only 10 ball reversals in the final two periods, with not one possession containing multiple ball reversals.

In stark contrast, Wollongong swung the ball from side-to-side 30 times, including nine possessions with multiple reversals.

The main culprit for the Breakers was point guard Cedric Jackson, who was repeatedly sucked in to one-on-one play against the set help defence.

The result was Jackson’s first NBL game without an assist. His next lowest? One, against Wollongong in Round 6.

The wrap
New Zealand have more talent and more to play for, but coach Lemanis has to get them playing “Breakers basketball” or the Hawks will cut off their free-flowing lifeline.

The Breakers grab 40 per cent of the rebounds at their offensive end on average, but Wollongong kept that to 34 last week.

They usually force 15.4 turnovers but the Hawks gave up just nine. New Zealand average 17.6 assists per game but had a mere six last week, even while shooting 43 per cent from long range.

Can the Hawks shut New Zealand down again? Can they get another outburst like Forman’s 29-point extravaganza?

The odds favour the Breakers, who will know top spot could be on the line on Thursday night.

Prediction: Breakers by 10