Round 3 Buy, Hold, Sell, Captain: SuperCoach NBL Classic

Eight of the 10 NBL clubs play twice in Round 3 of SuperCoach NBL Classic, which flips the usual question on its head. The job this round isn't finding a double-header. It's making sure you're not carrying too many players from the only two clubs that play once: the Perth Wildcats at home to South East Melbourne Phoenix, and the Sydney Kings at home to the Brisbane Bullets.

Lockout is 5.30pm (AEST) on Wednesday, September 30, when the New Zealand Breakers host the Cairns Taipans at Spark Arena. The round doesn't finish until the Breakers visit the Adelaide 36ers at 5pm (AEDT) on Sunday, October 4, the day daylight saving starts.

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The other thing driving Round 3 is the price clock. Prices have only moved for the 51 players who have played three games, so anyone who has played twice is still sitting on his launch price with a third game to come.

That's why the lead call of the round is Arnas Velička ($277,000). The Bullets point guard has the highest average in the game, a Brisbane double and a price that hasn't moved since launch. More than 1,400 SuperCoaches have already traded him in, making him the most traded-in player of the week, and he's shaping to be owned by more than 20 per cent of coaches when Round 3 tips off.

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Buy before the price moves

Arnas Velička ($277,000): 55.0 average | breakeven 14.5 | 22.2% owned
Max Mackinnon ($200,000): 36.0 average | breakeven 1.0 | 11.4% owned
Nate Hinton ($277,000): 38.5 average | breakeven 18.5 | 3.7% owned
Will Magnay ($269,300): 36.0 average | breakeven 19.5 | 4.7% owned
Cole Anthony ($300,000): 37.0 average | breakeven 23.0 | 22.1% owned
Taran Armstrong ($304,700): 35.5 average | breakeven 23.0 | 3.2% owned
David Johnson ($232,900): 32.5 average | breakeven 21.0 | 4.9% owned

Velička is the best value of any Round 3 doubler at 19.9 points per $100,000. Brisbane play at Sydney on Wednesday night and host the Tasmania JackJumpers on Saturday.

Mackinnon is next best on value at 18.0 points per $100,000, after 31 points and 12 rebounds against Illawarra, and is projected to rise $42,900. Like Hinton, he carries guard and forward eligibility, which matters come captaincy time.

Magnay is the only centre on the list, in the thinnest position in the game, with Tasmania hosting Melbourne United on Thursday and visiting Brisbane on Saturday. His JackJumpers teammates Armstrong and Johnson ride the same double, while Anthony gets Melbourne's trip to Tasmania followed by Cairns at home.

Hold

Dash Daniels ($159,200) remains the most owned player in SuperCoach NBL Classic at 51.5 per cent, and for good reason. He's averaging 28.0 across three games and is already up $44,200 from his $115,000 launch price, the biggest rise in the game, with a further $13,200 projected. The Phoenix visit Perth on Friday and host Illawarra on Sunday.

Nick Rakocevic ($229,000) is up $40,600, the second-biggest rise, averaging 33.7 with a breakeven of just 4.5. Adelaide double up and his forward and centre eligibility gives you two places to start him.

Parker Jackson-Cartwright ($435,200) is averaging 50.3, second only to Velička, and New Zealand have five doubles to Round 10, starting with Cairns at home on Wednesday and Adelaide away on Sunday.

Cheapies playing twice

Ben Gold ($69,000): 12.0 average
Shaun Bruce ($93,900): 14.0 average
Tanner Krebs ($165,800): 20.3 average
Akech Aliir ($131,300): 14.3 average

All four are scoring above their breakevens, and Bruce, Krebs and Aliir have already risen in price. Bruce has been traded out 261 times anyway. Hold.

Hold on fixture

Bryce Cotton ($473,800): 45.3 average | breakeven 43.5 | 39.1% owned
Zylan Cheatham ($336,500): 31.3 average | breakeven 32.5 | 16.7% owned

Cotton's price has moved $100 in three games, which is as flat as a premium gets. Adelaide visit Illawarra on Friday and host New Zealand on Sunday, but the 36ers have only three doubles to Round 10.

Single in Round 3, but no reason to panic

Anthony Dell'Orso ($138,300): 24.3 average | breakeven minus 35 | 21.8% owned
Elijah Pepper ($232,800): 31.0 average | breakeven minus 5
Kendric Davis ($436,000): 46.0 average | breakeven 33.0

Dell'Orso is up $38,300, the third-biggest rise in the game, and is still projected to climb $42,700 on one game. Pepper is up $30,100 since he hit the winner over Adelaide, while Davis has the third-highest average in the game and one game at home to Brisbane.

Sell

Sam Mennenga ($285,700) and Keanu Pinder ($294,700) are both already below their launch prices. Mennenga is averaging 22.3 against a breakeven of 33.0, is projected to fall another $20,800 and has been traded out 524 times, yet is still 32.3 per cent owned. Pinder is averaging 26.7 against a breakeven of 36.0 with 487 trades out.

Falling and still widely held

Sam Mennenga ($285,700): down $17,400 | breakeven 33.0
Keanu Pinder ($294,700): down $5,300 | breakeven 36.0
Hunter Goodrick ($62,200): down $6,800 | breakeven 8.0
Reuben Te Rangi ($86,900): down $10,200 | breakeven 13.5
Luke Travers ($292,900): 22.5 average | breakeven 32.5

Goodrick is averaging 4.0 and is still the second most owned player in the game at 39.7 per cent. Travers has only played twice so his price hasn't moved yet, but a fall of $8,800 is projected.

Premiums not paying their way

William Hickey ($309,800): down $21,800 | breakeven 41.5
Jack McVeigh ($318,300): down $31,500 | breakeven 32.5
Tyrell Harrison ($336,100): 27.5 average | breakeven 39.5
Xavier Cooks ($308,000): 22.0 average | breakeven 44.0
Torrey Craig ($290,400): 20.5 average | breakeven 42.0

Hickey is the hardest call of the round given Illawarra have six doubles to Round 10, but he's averaging 23.3 and is projected to fall a further $25,000. McVeigh's drop is the third biggest in the game, and Cooks and Craig have only one game with Sydney.

Priced high, scoring under 20

Nathan Sobey ($379,600): 14.0 in one game | breakeven 47.5
Sam Waardenburg ($277,500): 12.0 average | breakeven 33.0
Jaylin Williams ($277,000): 12.0 average | breakeven 33.5
D'Shawn Schwartz ($250,500): 16.3 average | breakeven 27.5

Sobey is available after back soreness but is projected to fall $40,700. Williams is on the right side of Brisbane's double and the wrong side of the scoresheet, while Schwartz is already down $26,500.

Perth play once

Kristian Doolittle ($325,200) is averaging 33.3, but the Wildcats have one game in Round 3 and their first double of the season isn't until Round 7. He's the most traded-out player of the round at 614.

Jo Lual-Acuil Jr ($306,500) is down $11,600 and in doubt after leaving Perth's win over New Zealand on September 26 after 7 minutes and 38 seconds with an apparent calf injury.

Out and still owned

If one of these players is in your starting five and doesn't play, the auto-emergency promotes your lowest-scoring bench player who did play, not your best, so a known out is worth a trade.

Flynn Cameron ($241,700): ankle, in a moon boot and expected to miss up to six weeks | 8.7% owned
Mason Peatling ($147,700): foot, awaiting a scan | 3.0% owned
Todd Blanchfield ($123,800): broken finger, timeframe to be determined | 2.6% owned
Preston Le Gassick ($69,000): ankle, no return date | 2.3% owned
Darius Days ($277,000): parted ways with Illawarra after one game | 1.2% owned

Hawks coach Justin Tatum said on September 28: "Mason will get a scan tomorrow, and hopefully his foot isn't broken."

On Blanchfield, he added: "As of right now, I know Todd Blanchfield's finger is broken. The timeframe is to be determined."

Le Gassick hadn't been flagged as injured in SuperCoach as of September 28, so the game won't warn you, and Days is still listed at Illawarra.

Captain

The armband doubles a player's score across both games in a double round, and it doubles a negative just as faithfully, so the shortlist is Round 3 doublers only.

Captain candidates

Arnas Velička: 55.0 average | at Sydney on Wednesday 7.30pm (AEST), home to Tasmania on Saturday 5.30pm (AEST)
Parker Jackson-Cartwright: 50.3 average | home to Cairns on Wednesday 5.30pm (AEST), at Adelaide on Sunday 5pm (AEDT)
Bryce Cotton: 45.3 average | at Illawarra on Friday 7.30pm (AEST), home to New Zealand on Sunday

Velička is the armband call. One thing to check before you lock it in: Cotton and Jackson-Cartwright meet in Adelaide on Sunday, so they aren't independent picks for captain and vice-captain.

Davis is the best single-game option of the round on 46.0, but one game is one game, and he isn't a captaincy candidate in Round 3.

Round 3 locks at 5.30pm (AEST) on Wednesday, September 30.