The numbers game: Final day Blitz scenarios

The CODE Sports NBL Blitz is set to come down to the final day to decide the winner of the Loggins-Bruton Cup, with the Melbourne/Illawarra clash the defining game of the tournament.

At present, the South East Melbourne Phoenix sit out on top of the standings with 11 points, while Melbourne and Illawarra are on 6 and 4.5 respectively.

The Phoenix are in the box seat, but anything could play out on day five in Bendigo.

Here’s how United and the Hawks could overtake the Phoenix, who currently have 11 points.

How Melbourne wins the Blitz:

- The cleanest path: Defeat Illawarra and win at least three quarters (12+ points)
- Defeat Illawarra and make up the two-point ladder differential, ie. Two quarter wins and a draw (11.5 points), two quarter wins only (11 points – comes down to points %).
Some less likely scenarios include: Two quarter wins and two draws (12 points), one quarter win and three draws (11.5 points), one quarter win and two draws (11 points – comes down to points %).

How Illawarra wins the Blitz:

- The cleanest path: Defeat Melbourne and win all four quarters – 11.5 points
- Defeat Melbourne, winning three quarters and drawing the fourth (11 points – comes down to points %).

Watch the final day of Blitz action on ESPN via Disney+, Kayo Sports and 9Now, with the first game tipping off from 2:30pm AEST.

The Tasmania JackJumpers and New Zealand Breakers close out the tournament from 5:00pm AEST.