Finals state of play: The case for and against every team

Pete Hooley for NBL.com.au.

With just six teams left in the hunt for ultimate glory, it all begins with the Play-In Tournament, which is set to be as competitive as ever. Only two teams can progress through to set up a Playoff showdown with Adelaide and the Sydney Kings.

Let’s take a look at why your team can win it all and perhaps what could stop them from going all the way.

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Why they can
‍To put it simply, they’re the benchmark. After a slow start to the season, the Kings won 17 of their last 19 games, including their last six by an average margin of 25 points. One of the major reasons they will be hard to beat is that the Kings have the best defensive rating in the entire league (108.2) and they turn up the heat when it’s time to put the opposition away.

What helps them be the best defensive team in the competition is their extreme versatility, with athleticism and length throughout their very deep roster.

Why they can’t
‍If there was any key indicator to look at that could be concerning for the Kings, it would be at both ends from the three-point line. Two of the Kings’ best shooters, percentage-wise, have been ruled out for the season in Tyler Robertson (47.8) and Bul Kuol (44). They have three players who take more than four threes per game in Kendric Davis, Kouat Noi and Jaylin Galloway, all shooting under 35 per cent.

The flip side is that opposition teams take the most threes against the Kings of any team at 32.5 attempts per game. This is largely because their collective defence is so strong at forcing teams out of the paint, but it could come back to bite them against a very good shooting team.

Why they can
‍Any time you have the six-time MVP in Bryce Cotton, you always give yourself a chance. In his first season at Adelaide, Cotton was at his best and put up nearly 26 points and eight assists per game. History tells us that Cotton thrives on big moments and if the 36ers are to go all the way, it will be on the back of another special post-season from the superstar.

Outside of Cotton, what helps this Adelaide team is that they get to the free-throw line as well as any team in the league and shoot it the best at 79 per cent. In the post-season, when physicality ramps up and the play often slows down, being able to efficiently step up to the stripe and knock down free points could be the difference.

Why they can’t
‍The 36ers aren’t playing their best basketball right now and that’s highlighted by them winning just four of their last 10 games of the season (11 including the Ignite Cup Final). In that time, there have been a lot of questions as to where it has all gone wrong, but the lack of defensive identity has become apparent. In that stretch, the 36ers have given up over 100 points four times and haven’t been able to show they can consistently get defensive stops when needed.

On the other end, their offence is still producing on the back of Cotton’s brilliance, but they are seventh in the league in bench scoring at just 21.9 points per game. Recent champions have often had key moments in the post-season where the bench helped them progress to a championship. Can Adelaide do the same?

Why they can
‍If the game becomes a track meet, then it favours the Phoenix because they are able to score the ball for fun. Josh King’s team finished the regular season averaging over 100 points per game, the only team to hit that mark. The key to their success has been that they don’t rely on just one superstar to keep the scoreboard ticking over and instead utilise their depth to their advantage.

The Phoenix have an astonishing seven players averaging more than 10 points per game, any of whom can catch fire on a given night. Whether that’s their MVP in Nathan Sobey, Best Sixth Man Angus Glover, Wes Iwundu, Ian Clark or Owen Foxwell, there are weapons everywhere.‍

Why they can’t
‍When the Phoenix first began to flex their muscle midway through the season, it was on the back of being the powerhouse defensive team that King demands. Led by John Brown III, this Phoenix team was locking down opponents and forcing turnovers with ease, all while putting up points with ease.

Since Round 18, that has fallen away and they have been only the sixth-ranked defensive team by rating in that time. A large part of that is they’ve sent their opponents to the free-throw line over 26 times per game, the most of any team. In a post-season where every possession is magnified, this is one area to watch for the Phoenix.

Why they can
‍If you want to talk about peaking at the right time and playing the best basketball at the most important part of the season, then outside of Sydney it’s Perth. The Wildcats have won 10 of their last 12 games to finish and have done so while juggling injuries to key pieces of their puzzle. First it was David Duke Jr, then Ben Henshall and Dylan Windler, and yet this Wildcats team still found a way.

Their elite defence has also been understated in NBL26, allowing just 86 points per game, which is the best in the league. Led by Kristian Doolittle and Windler in that area, the Wildcats tick enough boxes to be a very solid defensive unit. The last part of that equation that bodes well is that their defensive identity has carried over on the road.

Why they can’t
‍What would make it a tough task for the Wildcats is if they lost any of their starters in the post-season. Injuries to key players would hurt any team, but it would have a stronger impact on Perth due to how integral each piece of the puzzle is. Henshall has stepped up as the leading playmaker, with Elijah Pepper becoming a consistent scoring threat in the backcourt. Then there’s Jo Lual-Acuil Jr and Windler, who outside of Doolittle, have the most influence on the team’s success.

From a numbers perspective, it’s interesting to note that in the two games they have lost in their last 12, the Wildcats were beaten badly on the glass. Controlling the rebounding battle has been a key to their recent success.

Why they can
‍Chris Goulding mentioned during their finals presser that his team would be playing with a sense of “desperation,” as they must win back-to-back elimination games just to progress. He doubled down by saying he felt his team had been approaching every game in recent weeks with that mindset due to their form slump since Round 10. Combine that with their Throwdown win to end the season and perhaps there’s enough momentum there for them to rediscover the groove they had when they began the season 9-0.

Defensively, they have also lifted in the last few rounds and sit with the second-best rating in that area across the league. In their last eight games, they have allowed over 90 points just three times. As they continue to work through their offensive issues, there are plenty of reasons to believe they can get it done if they win the first two play-in games.

Why they can’t
‍The simple answer here for United is that they just haven’t shown it consistently enough in the last three months. For a team that began 9-0, they only showed glimpses of that form for the remainder of the season and ultimately fell to fifth. While their defence has picked up in the last few weeks, their offensive production is still not as reliable as Dean Vickerman would hope.

Since Round 10, United are the second-worst shooting team in the league at just 42.5 per cent from the field and 31.5 per cent from three. For a team with offensive talent like Goulding, Milton Doyle and Tyson Walker, that doesn’t put them in a strong position to succeed.

Why they can
‍If there’s one thing we have learnt about the JackJumpers in the last five years, it’s that the more you write them off, the more likely they are to prove you wrong. This team has struggled to have enough players healthy right now, yet they still have plenty of talent capable of getting some wins. Led by Josh Bannon and David Johnson, this JackJumpers team won’t be feeling any pressure in the post-season.

Another reason this team has a chance is their style of play, which is to grind it out and slow the game right down. Once again, they are the slowest-paced team in the league and will use that to their advantage, especially while down key personnel. It might not be the pretttiest style to watch, but with their backs against the wall, that is just how Tasmania wants it.‍

Why they can’t
‍Injuries. It’s a really simple answer and unfortunately it may be the reason they can’t contend for a title. While they still have enough talent to win a game or two, they are running out of available players to make a deep run at the championship. Losing Will Magnay, Bryce Hamilton and Ben Ayre for the season has made it almost impossible for them to achieve what they set out to.